Who was your favorite judge on American Idol? Randy? Paula?

Mine was Simon Cowell

The thing I liked about Simon was that he told it like it is. However, while he was often a dick, when somebody was good, you knew it.

Which is why I knew American Idol's days were numbered when Simon left.

The Problem

What's the problem with fantasy baseball?

I asked my friend Will Carroll, and he had a simple answer to that question.


I would argue that the world of fantasy baseball has a problem similar to the one that killed American Idol.

It doesn't have a Simon Cowell.

The Root Cause

Why is accuracy such a problem?

Public Relations Masquerading as Fantasy Analysis

The fact is that too much writing about baseball and prospects are thinly-veiled public relations pieces.

  • The future's always bright!
  • This year is the year!
  • If it's not this year, then it's next year at the latest!
  • Everybody's a prospect!

The average fan may -- and does -- lap that crap up, but I know it's not what I'm looking for.

Stupid Subjective Scout Shit

Even when people try to get penetrating with their analysis, too often they are quoting scouts and evaluators who simply aren't that good, in large part because they hide behind their experience and subjective experience.

Why can't he hit? Because he's got a long swing. And how do you know he's got a long swing? Because he can't hit.

Projections that Lack Injury and Other Deflators

I think projection systems like ZiPS are interesting, but the problem I see with them is that they don't seem to take injuries into account. Too often, when I see a WAR projection for a pitcher, I apply a discount factor of .25, .5, or even .75 given a pitcher's injury risk.